Stelmach holds on to premiership

77.4%Ed Stelmach holds on to his premiership at Red Deer meeting

Jason Fekete, Calgary Herald

Published: Sunday, November 08, 2009

RED DEER - Ed Stelmach will hold on to the premiership and party crown--although concerns still linger--after surviving a Progressive Conservative leadership review Saturday with 77.4 per cent support from delegates.

Twenty months after a landslide provincial election victory, and three years after Stelmach snared the party reins, a comfortable majority of Conservative delegates at the party's annual convention in Red Deer voted against having a leadership contest.

Stelmach declared the 77.4 per cent backing a strong "endorsement" from the nearly 1,200 delegates who voted.

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But the premier said he's heard party members' concerns and will make changes --including a possible cabinet shuffle--although he refused to elaborate.

"You held the fate of this party in your hands and your vote of confidence will give me the sense of purpose to fight even harder, to unite this great party, to ensure that we're strong and we're in good spirits to win the next election," he told delegates.

"Yes, (we've) listened very carefully. Changes are coming, but they will be done in due course on my timeline," said Stelmach.

Speaking later to reporters, he said party members offered up "good support given some of the issues that we are facing," and he feels energized with a renewed mandate.

Stelmach insisted the Tories are a "big tent" party that appeals to a wide swath of Albertans, but heard "time and time again" that government needs to rethink some of its policies and how it communicates.

He'll take time, however, to think through what changes are needed before acting, the premier added.

Stelmach said the past three months have required a lot of work, but he feels "very, very comfortable" with where his premiership, party and province currently sit.

Former premier Ralph Klein had argued Stelmach needed 70 per cent support to hold onto the party crown.

Klein was forced to resign as Tory leader and premier in 2006 after receiving only 55.4 per cent support in a leadership review, although he snared support in the high 90s in his heyday.

But the mandate from party members isn't placating major worries that some diehard Tories have about the leader and the PC party that's reigned over Alberta for 38 consecutive years.

A recent Environics poll showed the PCs have sunk to their lowest level of popular support in 16 years, fallen to second place in Calgary and are at risk of being overtaken provincewide by Danielle Smith's Wildrose Alliance as the favoured party among voters.

The Tory government is also taking stock after its third-place finish in the September byelection in Calgary-Glenmore, captured by the Wildrose Alliance.

"Premier Stelmach and the PC party and government have two years to turn it around (before the next election). It's going to be an interesting two years," said former Calgary Tory MLA Richard Magnus, who now holds memberships in both the PC and Wildrose parties.

"His endorsement isn't ringing, but it's an endorsement."

Of the 1,191 votes cast by eligible delegates--including current and former MLAs and constituency association members--922 voted no to having a leadership race, while 269 said yes.

Cabinet minister Ted Morton, one of Stelmach's rivals in the 2006 leadership race, said the premier got a strong vote of confidence from party members, but also a message that major changes are needed.

"No question that the party does not want a leadership(race)and want Ed to continue," Morton said. "But obviously we need to do some things policy-wise to win back those small-c conservatives who are drifting off to the Wildrose (Alliance)."

Winning back right-wing voters, especially in Calgary, requires ensuring more competitiveness in the oil and gas sector and showing more fiscal discipline-- "which I'll guarantee we'll be showing," he added.

Liberal Leader David Swann called Saturday's result the "death knell" of the PC party and dawn of the Stelmach Conservatives.

"The premier has survived this leadership review, thanks to his ability to motivate his tightly-knit cadre of supporters," Swann said in a statement. "But I'm afraid that this won't help him win back the support of the wider public."

Justice Minister Alison Redford, MLA for Calgary-Elbow, said the review produced a "good number" for the premier and about what she expected. But the government must focus its efforts in Calgary on winning back the energy industry.

"We've got some challenges and there's a party out there that we have to deal with," Redford said.

Political observers said Stelmach has a firm grip on the leadership, but must quickly address his party's slipping popularity.

"There are two people clinking champagne glasses tonight. One is Ed Stelmach because he survived for another day; the other is Danielle Smith because she has the opponent she most wants," said David Taras, political analyst at the University of Calgary.

"The problem (for the Tories) is the disconnect between the party and public opinion in Alberta. I don't think that gets resolved, I think the crisis deepens."

Indeed, the governing Conservatives have faced mounting public backlash -- especially in Calgary --in recent months on issues such as the new oil and gas royalty framework, economic management, politicians' pay and the H1N1 flu vaccination rollout.

Wildrose leader Smith said the review's results are what she expected, but doesn't mesh with what she's hearing across the province.

"Albertans are upset with this government for destroying investor confidence in our energy industry, for mishandling our health care system and for taking us back into deficits," she said in a statement.

"We will work hard to show Albertans that we are the alternative to the PCs and that we will give Albertans the kind of government they expect and deserve."

Former provincial Tory cabinet minister Marv Moore, who's also a past PC campaign manager, isn't happy with the current state of the party and said the premier must overhaul his cabinet and top advisers. A failure to do so, he said, could mean the end of the 38-year Tory dynasty.

"We have to make major changes in his cabinet and office staff very soon, or we're going to be taken over by the Wildrose Alliance," Moore said. "You can't continue with the same crew when you're sliding in the polls. I hope he recognizes that."

jfekete@theherald.canwest.com

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